基于水足迹的中国生态型缺水及其时空变化研究

在气候变化、社会经济发展以及人口快速增长等多重因素的影响下，全球水 资源供需矛盾日益加剧，对全球可持续发展进程构成了严重威胁。目前，大多数 水资源短缺评价研究主要从人类角度出发，评估区域水资源的水量和水质是否符 合人类生活、生产的需求，少有研究关注于生态系统对水资源的需求。而从生态 系统角度出发，评价区域的生态型缺水状况，对区域生态修复和水资源管理是很 有必要的。 本研究基于水足迹概念和三维水资源短缺评价体系，建立了一种综合评估区 域生态型缺水程度的理论方法，该方法使用蓝水足迹表征耗水，灰水足迹表征水 污染，并使用水文学方法估算生态需水。本研究将其应用于中国 31 个省级行政 区，探究了人类活动对中国生态型缺水的影响。 结果表明，中国大部分存在生态型缺水问题的省份都位于北方地区，其中， 宁夏地区的生态型缺水问题最为严重。2003-2019 年，中国生态型缺水问题有了 显著的缓解，在 31 个省级行政区中，人类活动对生态系统可利用水资源量的负 面影响在 21 个地区显著下降。到 2015-2019 年时间段，所有存在生态型缺水问题 的地区的驱动因素都是人类过度耗水，而水体污染逐渐不再是导致各地生态型缺 水的主要驱动因素。同时，南水北调工程在缓解其沿线受水区的生态型缺水问题 方面发挥了一定的作用。特别是南水北调中线工程，极大地缓解了北京和天津地 区的生态型缺水问题。此外，对于 2015-2019 时间段内仍处于生态型缺水状态的 地区，应结合其生态型缺水的原因，加强当地水资源管理。例如，河北地区应加 强农业相关的节水措施，而针对天津地区，则应该重点关注减少生活部门的用水 量。本研究的结果阐明了中国生态型缺水的时空演变及其驱动因素，可以为不同 地区的生态系统保护和水资源的综合管理利用提供理论依据和支撑。

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