基于能量平衡的青藏高原小冬克玛底冰川消融模拟研究

在全球变化背景下，青藏高原的冰川在过去几十年间呈加速消融状态，对区域水循环过程产生显著影响。陆地水储量是表征水循环状态的重要指标，冰川消融导致的固态水储量减少直接影响陆地水储量的时空分布。探明气候变化背景下青藏高原陆地水储量的变化趋势，揭示冰川加速消融机理，可为预估和应对青藏高原的水安全风险提供科学依据。目前陆地水储量研究多基于重力卫星观测数据（GRACE），但受卫星观测时长限制，青藏高原陆地水储量在长时间尺度上的变化尚不清晰。冰川消融过程已被部分水文模型考虑，但现有模型多基于度日因子法模拟冰川消融，关注冰川物质平衡及消融水量的变化，缺乏冰川加速消融过程中物质与能量变化的机理分析。

本文通过融合卫星观测数据和模型模拟数据，分析青藏高原陆地水储量在长时间尺度上的变化情况，探究气候变化对陆地水储量及其组分的影响。基于冰川表面的物质—能量平衡过程构建冰川消融模型，模拟典型冰川的物质能量过程，探究不同气候因子变化对冰川物质平衡的影响机理，预测不同气候情景下典型冰川物质平衡的变化趋势。主要研究结果如下：

基于GRACE数据和跨部门影响模型比较计划（ISIMIP）多模型模拟数据，利用不同社会经济情景和辐射强迫情景的组合探究气候变化对陆地水储量的影响。结果显示，1861—2005年间青藏高原陆地水储量在工业革命前情景（PIC）与历史情景（HIST）下均呈增加趋势，气候变化降低了青藏高原陆地水储量的增加速率（0.50 km³ a^-1）。2006—2099年间青藏高原陆地水储量在PIC情景下呈增加趋势，在RCP2.6、RCP6.0与RCP8.5情景下均呈减少趋势，气候变化改变了青藏高原陆地水储量的变化趋势。基于冰川高程变化数据与GRACE数据的分析表明冰川消融导致的固体水储量损失是2003年以来青藏高原陆地水储量减少的主要原因。

构建基于能量平衡冰川消融模型，实现大气—冰川表面—冰川内部之间物质、能量过程的耦合。使用模型模拟小冬克玛底冰川2012—2014年两个物质平衡年的冰川物质平衡状况。结果表明两个物质平衡年内小冬克玛底冰川均处于物质亏损状态，冰川物质平衡分别为-682.08 mm w.e.和-574.85 mm w.e.。模拟结果显示冰川消融主要发生在暖季，剧烈的消融抵消了冷季的物质累积，使冰川呈现负的物质平衡状态。净辐射主导暖季的能量过程，是消融能量的主要来源。

气候因子敏感性试验表明气温变化主要通过改变净辐射影响冰川能量平衡过程，通过冰川消融量影响冰川物质平衡。降水变化主要通过改变降雪量影响冰川物质平衡。小冬克玛底冰川物质平衡对气温升高1 ℃的敏感性高于气温降低1 ℃的敏感性，意味着升温造成的冰川物质损失不能通过降低相同的温度弥补。升温是青藏高原冰川物质损失的主要原因，减缓冰川退缩的关键是控制升温幅度。

基于CMIP6模式模拟数据分析了青藏高原未来的气候变化情况。2015—2100年间青藏高原年平均气温在SSP2-4.5情景和SSP5-8.5情景下的升温速率分别为0.034 ℃ a^-1和0.070 ℃ a^-1。SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下青藏高原年平均降水量均呈显著增加趋势，青藏高原未来的气候将朝着“变暖”、“变湿”的方向发展。小冬克玛底冰川未来物质平衡模拟结果显示，在SSP2-4.5情景和SSP5-8.5情景下冰川的物质平衡均呈减小趋势，冰川物质亏损呈加速状态。SSP5-8.5情景下物质平衡的减小速率高于SSP2-4.5情景下的减小速率。

综上所述，本文分析了青藏高原陆地水储量在不同气候情景下的变化趋势，揭示了气候变化对陆地水储量及其组分的影响。构建了基于冰川表面物质—能量平衡过程的冰川消融模型，揭示了升温背景下冰川消融加速的能量机理。研究结果为高寒流域水文模拟提供有效工具，为进一步了解青藏高原冰川对气候变化的响应机制及水资源管理措施的制定提供科学依据。

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