基于长时间观测和数值模式的深圳湾水文性质变化研究

深圳湾是位于粤港澳大湾区伶仃洋内狭小且半封闭的海湾，本文结合长时间现场观测和卫星遥感数据，依托多层嵌套数值模拟系统，对1994-2018年深圳湾水文性质和流场变化特征展开长时间数值反演，首次揭示和分析了深圳湾水文性质的季节尺度变化和长期演变趋势，并深入探究了深圳湾流场的动力过程及其调控机制。

研究结合香港环保署长时间现场观测数据和高分辨率卫星观测数据，对深圳湾水文环境变化的多尺度过程进行了具体分析：深圳湾湾内温度、盐度的空间差异性很小，其水文性质变化在季节尺度上表现出与粤港澳大湾区水体“同升同降”的典型特征，夏季温度较高而盐度较低，冬季温度较低而温度较高。深圳湾在1994-2018年出现了明显的升温现象，且升温幅度以夏天更大，而冬季升温趋势不明显。1994-2018年，深圳湾盐度有降低趋势，但是季节差异更加显著，表现为明显冬季盐度降低而夏季盐度升高趋势。

鉴于深圳湾外水体主要通过区域流场与湾内水文性质变化产生动力连接，本文结合数值模拟结果对其流场结构的三维特征展开了系统剖析：深圳湾内环流常年存在反气旋流场结构特征，湾口交换流表现出以“北进南出”为典型特征的流场形态，而在冬季，海表流场的表层出流更加明显，因此冬季的交换流结构叠加了湾口水体中的“上出下进”形态。且本文首次发现，与国内外其他宽湾口海湾内的流场不同，深圳湾流场结构在季节尺度上并未表现出根本性的方向偏转。 

研究进一步系统解析了深圳湾流场动力机制和湾内水文性质变化的调控机制：深圳湾内风场、压强梯度力、地球自转和非线性平流过程的联合调控是保持湾内反气旋环流结构的主要原因，冬季主要是风场建立的Ekman输运维持了湾内的反气旋流场特征，而夏季主要维持机制是西南向的压强梯度力和东北向科氏力、平流项建立的梯度风平衡。深圳湾湾口交换流结构的南侧“出流”分支主要是东南向压强梯度力和平流项以及西北向局地科氏力导致的梯度风关系维持；北侧“入流”分支则主要由矾石水道建立的东南向压强梯度力无法平衡西北向平流项，诱导局地科氏力转为东南方向，通过梯度风关系维持。深圳湾内海气热通量是决定1994-2018年深圳湾温度长期变化趋势的主控因素，而湾口交换流导致的盐度输运在决定湾内盐度长期变化趋势方面起到重要作用。

[1]苏纪兰.南海环流动力机制研究综述[J].海洋学报(中文版),2005(06):3-10.
[2]Shu, Y., Wang, Q., & Zu, T., Progress on shelf and slope circulation in the northern South China Sea. Science China Earth Sciences[J]. 2018, 61(5): 560–571.
[3]Zu T, Gan J. Numerical Study of Tide and Tidal Currents in the South China Sea[C]//Prpceedings-2006 West Pacific Geophysical Meeting. 2006.
[4]Gan J, Li L, Wang D, et al. Interaction of a river plume with coastal upwelling in the northeastern South China Sea[J]. Continental Shelf Research, 2009, 29(4): 728-740.
[5]Gan J, Cheung A, Guo X, et al. Intensified upwelling over a widened shelf in the northeastern South China Sea[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2009, 114(C9).
[6]Gan J, Wang J, Liang L, et al. A modeling study of the formation, maintenance, and relaxation of upwelling circulation on the Northeastern South China Sea shelf[J]. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2015, 117: 41-52.
[7] Su J. Overview of the South China Sea circulation and its influence on the coastal physical oceanography outside the Pearl River Estuary[J]. Continental Shelf Research, 2004, 24(16): 1745-1760.
[8]Hu J, Kawamura H, Hong H, et al. A review on the currents in the South China Sea: seasonal circulation, South China Sea warm current and Kuroshio intrusion[J]. Journal of Oceanography, 2000, 56: 607-624.
[9]Deng Y, Liu Z, Zu T, et al. Climatic controls on the interannual variability of shelf circulation in the northern South China Sea[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2022, 127(7): e2022JC018419.
[10]Zu T, Gan J. A numerical study of coupled estuary–shelf circulation around the Pearl River Estuary during summer: Responses to variable winds, tides and river discharge[J]. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2015, 117: 53-64.
[11]乔福傲. 深圳湾海岸带空间发展及其综合评价研究[D]. 辽宁:大连理工大学城市规划学科硕士学位论文,2021.
[12]何梦羽. 广东省海洋环境治理问题研究[D]. 广东:广东海洋大学行政管理学科硕士学位论文,2019.
[13]Pickard G L, McLeod D C. Seasonal variation of temperature and salinity of surface waters of the British Columbia coast[J]. Journal of the Fisheries Board of Canada, 1953, 10(3): 125-145.
[14]Bailey W B, MacGregor D G, Hachey H B. Annual variations of temperature and salinity in the Bay of Fundy[J]. Journal of the Fisheries Board of Canada, 1954, 11(1): 32-47.
[15]Trites R W. Temperature and salinity in the Quoddy Region of the Bay of Fundy[J]. Journal of the Fisheries Board of Canada, 1962, 19(5): 975-978.
[16]Murty V S N, Sarma Y V B, Rao D P, et al. Water characteristics, mixing and circulation in the Bay of Bengal during southwest monsoon[J]. Journal of Marine Research, 1992, 50(2): 207-228.
[17]Shetye S R, Gouveia A D, Shankar D, et al. Hydrography and circulation in the western Bay of Bengal during the northeast monsoon[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 1996, 101(C6): 14011-14025.
[18]Kumar B, Sil S, Pandey P C, et al. Seasonal and monthly variation of vertical structure of temperature, salinity and heat flux of the Bay of Bengal[J]. Marine Geodesy, 2010, 33(1): 76-99.
[19]Yoon S, Kasai A. Relative contributions of external forcing factors to circulation and hydrographic properties in a micro-tidal bay[J]. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2017, 198: 225-235.
[20]Castagno P, de Ruggiero P, Pierini S, et al. Hydrographic and dynamical characterisation of the Bagnoli-Coroglio Bay (Gulf of Naples, Tyrrhenian Sea)[J]. Chemistry and Ecology, 2020, 36(6): 598-618.
[21]Muhling B A, Gaitán C F, Stock C A, et al. Potential salinity and temperature futures for the Chesapeake Bay using a statistical downscaling spatial disaggregation framework[J]. Estuaries and coasts, 2018, 41: 349-372.
[22]Tian R. Factors controlling saltwater intrusion across multi-time scales in estuaries, Chester River, Chesapeake Bay[J]. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2019, 223: 61-73.
[23]Hinson K E, Friedrichs M A M, St‐Laurent P, et al. Extent and causes of Chesapeake Bay warming[J]. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2022, 58(6): 805-825.
[24]Yin K, Xu J, Harrison P J. A comparison of eutrophication processes in three Chinese subtropical semi-enclosed embayments with different buffering capacities[J]. Coastal Lagoons: Critical Habitats of Environmental Change (eds Kennish MJ, Paerl HW), 2010: 368-394.
[25]Yin K. Monsoonal influence on seasonal variations in nutrients and phytoplankton biomass in coastal waters of Hong Kong in the vicinity of the Pearl River estuary[J]. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2002, 245: 111-122.
[26]Yin K, Qian P Y, Chen J C, et al. Dynamics of nutrients and phytoplankton biomass in the Pearl River estuary and adjacent waters of Hong Kong during summer: preliminary evidence for phosphorus and silicon limitation[J]. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2000, 194: 295-305.
[27]张静,孙省利,陈春亮,张际标.深圳湾潮流动力特征研究[J].广东海洋大学学报,2010,30(03):77-81.
[28]张静. 深圳湾水环境综合评价及环境容量研究[D]. 辽宁:大连海事大学环境科学学科博士学位论文,2010.
[29]郑阳. 人工岛方案对深圳湾水环境影响的数值模拟[D]. 北京:清华大学环境工程学科硕士学位论文,2017.
[30]黄向青,张顺枝,梁开.深圳大鹏湾海流分布特征[J].南海地质研究,2004(00):82-91.
[31]黄小平,黄良民.大鹏湾水动力特征及其生态环境效应[J].热带海洋学报,2003(05):47-54.
[32]Liu Z, Gan J, Wu X. Coupled summer circulation and dynamics between a bay and the adjacent shelf around Hong Kong: Observational and modeling studies[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2018, 123(9): 6463-6480.
[33]Gan J, Li L, Wang D, et al. Interaction of a river plume with coastal upwelling in the northeastern South China Sea[J]. Continental Shelf Research, 2009, 29(4): 728-740.
[34]孙振宇,陈照章,杨龙奇,朱佳.大亚湾及周边海区潮流和余流的季节变化特征[J].厦门大学学报(自然科学版),2020,59(02):278-286.
[35]郑哲昊,庄伟,孙振宇,陈照章,朱佳,梁浩亮.大亚湾及其邻近海域冬季温度、盐度的分布及日变化特征[J].应用海洋学学报,2020,39(01):71-79.
[36]梁斌,李飞,鲍晨光,于春艳,张微微.《2021年中国海洋生态环境状况公报》解读[J].环境保护,2022,50(11):56-58.
[37]Cracknell A P. Advanced very high resolution radiometer AVHRR[M]. Crc Press, 1997.
[38]Llewellyn-Jones D, Remedios J. The Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and its predecessors ATSR-1 and ATSR-2: An introduction to the special issue[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2012, 116: 1-3.
[39]Brindley H, Knippertz P, Ryder C, et al. A critical evaluation of the ability of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) thermal infrared red‐green‐blue rendering to identify dust events: Theoretical analysis[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2012, 117(D7).
[40]Kawanishi T, Sezai T, Ito Y, et al. The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), NASDA's contribution to the EOS for global energy and water cycle studies[J]. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 2003, 41(2): 184-194.
[41]Gentemann C L, Wentz F J, Mears C A, et al. In situ validation of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission microwave sea surface temperatures[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2004, 109(C4).
[42]Justice C O, Vermote E, Townshend J R G, et al. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS): Land remote sensing for global change research[J]. IEEE transactions on geoscience and remote sensing, 1998, 36(4): 1228-1249.
[43]Menzel W P, Purdom J F W. Introducing GOES-I: The first of a new generation of geostationary operational environmental satellites[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1994, 75(5): 757-782.
[44]Kawamura H, Qin H, Sakaida F, et al. Hourly sea surface temperature retrieval using the Japanese geostationary satellite, Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT)[J]. Journal of oceanography, 2010, 66: 61-70.
[45]SHCHEPETKIN A F, MCWILLIAMS J C. The regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS): a split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model [J]. Ocean Modelling, 2005, 9(4): 347-404.
[46]郭树波. 基于ROMS的海洋流场与温度场的数值模拟仿真研究[D]. 辽宁:东北大学控制工程学科硕士学位论文,2016.
[47]Song Y. and D. B. Haidvogel, 1994: A semi-implicit ocean circulation model using a generalized topography-following coordinate system. J. Comp. Phys., 115(1), 228-244.
[48]MELLOR G L, YAMADA T. Development of a Turbulence Closure-Model for Geophysical Fluid Problems [J]. Reviews of Geophysics, 1982, 20(4): 851-75.
[49]Liu Z, Gan J. A modeling study of estuarine–shelf circulation using a composite tidal and subtidal open boundary condition[J]. Ocean Modelling, 2020, 147: 101563.
[50]Liu Z, Gan J. Open boundary conditions for tidally and subtidally forced circulation in a limited‐area coastal model using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2016, 121(8): 6184-6203.
[51]Egbert G D, Erofeeva S Y. Efficient inverse modeling of barotropic ocean tides[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic technology, 2002, 19(2): 183-204.