Detecting nonlinear information about drought propagation time and rate with nonlinear dynamic system and chaos theory

Zhao, Yiyang1; Zhu, Tingju1; Zhou, Zhaoqiang2; Cai, Hejiang2; Cao, Zhaodan1

2023-08-01

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129810

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY   影响因子和分区

0022-1694

1879-2707

Current approaches for calculating propagation time and rate from meteorological to hydrological drought mainly focus on the time series of SPI and SRI, and most of these methods are conducted in time domain (e.g., correlation analysis) and frequency domain (e.g., wavelet analysis), which are regarded as linear statistic methods. Inaccuracy could emerge when the complexity and nonlinearity of drought propagation is addressed by such linear methods. In light of this problem, this research adopts Nonlinear Dynamic System (NDS) conducted in phase domain, which provides a nonlinear and systematic perspective on drought propagation. NDS may conditionally generate chaos (commonly known as "butterfly" phenomenon), which was not covered by previous studies on drought propagation. Assuming an underlying NDS for drought events, we demonstrate the NDS of drought propagation could generate chaos, and the nonlinear information about the propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts can be detected within such chaotic NDS. The propagation time of 1-5 months and the propagation rate of 0.686 were found in the Pearl River Basin. In addition, the propagation time of 3, 7 and 11 months was also found in the Wei River Basin, to prove the broad applicability of our method. The results for these two basins are verified by previous studies.

Drought propagation Nonlinear Dynamic System (NDS) Chaos theory Phase domain

SCI ; EI

英语

其他

National Key Research and Devel-opment Program of China[2020YFA0608603] ; National NaturalScience Foundation of China[51961125204] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2022YFC3202300]

Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources

Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources

WOS:001023038000001

ELSEVIER

20232514272772

Drought ; Frequency domain analysis ; Nonlinear dynamical systems ; Time domain analysis ; Time series analysis ; Watersheds

Precipitation:443.3 ; Water Resources:444 ; Surface Water:444.1 ; Control Systems:731.1 ; Mathematics:921 ; Mathematical Transformations:921.3 ; Statistical Methods:922 ; Mathematical Statistics:922.2 ; Systems Science:961

ENGINEERING

Web of Science

1.Zhejiang Univ, ZJU UIUC Inst, Int Campus, Haining, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
2.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, State Environm Protect Key Lab Integrated Surface, Shenzhen, Guangdong, Peoples R China

Zhao, Yiyang,Zhu, Tingju,Zhou, Zhaoqiang,et al. Detecting nonlinear information about drought propagation time and rate with nonlinear dynamic system and chaos theory[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2023,623.

Zhao, Yiyang,Zhu, Tingju,Zhou, Zhaoqiang,Cai, Hejiang,&Cao, Zhaodan.(2023).Detecting nonlinear information about drought propagation time and rate with nonlinear dynamic system and chaos theory.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,623.

Zhao, Yiyang,et al."Detecting nonlinear information about drought propagation time and rate with nonlinear dynamic system and chaos theory".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 623(2023).