南方科技大学知识苑(SUSTech KC): Estimating the economic loss caused by earthquake in Mainland China

题名	Estimating the economic loss caused by earthquake in Mainland China
作者	Li，Yilong1 ; Xin，Danhua1 ; Zhang，Zhenguo1,2
通讯作者	Zhang，Zhenguo
发表日期	2023-09-01
DOI	10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103708
发表期刊	International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 影响因子和分区
ISSN	2212-4209
卷号	95
摘要	In order to estimate the post-earthquake losses in Mainland China, this paper develops a set of economic loss estimation models for Mainland China based on fixed asset data and the damaging information compiled in the Mainland China composite damaging earthquake catalog (MCCDE-CAT). Considering the differences in seismicity and economic development levels across China, these estimation models are developed separately for different sub-regions. Before performing regression analysis, the Human development index (HDI) is used to normalize the economic loss ratio from earthquake occurrence to the present. The robustness and effectiveness of the loss estimation models are verified by separating the loss information in MCCDE-CAT into sample and test data. According to the loss estimation models developed and the normal distribution characteristics of the residuals between modeled and recorded loss data, the probability of different ranges of predicted earthquake economic loss can be determined. Finally, the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake is taken as an example to demonstrate the application of our developed loss estimation model. The good consistency between the economic loss estimated based on post-earthquake investigations and the predicted economic loss range by our model further indicates the applicability of the model in rapid post-earthquake loss estimation. In the future, the economic loss estimation method will provide scientific guidance in post-earthquake government reconstruction decision-making and international humanitarian assistance. This method is also applicable to disaster loss estimation in any country and region in the world.
关键词	Disaster assessment Earthquake economic loss Estimation model Fixed assets Human development index
相关链接	[Scopus记录]
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
学校署名	第一 ; 通讯
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41922024];National Natural Science Foundation of China[42204054];
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001059517600001
出版者	ELSEVIER
Scopus记录号	2-s2.0-85167835881
来源库	Scopus
引用统计	被引频次[WOS]：2
成果类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://sustech.caswiz.com/handle/2SGJ60CL/559653
专题	理学院_地球与空间科学系
作者单位	1.Department of Earth and Space Sciences,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China 2.Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Geophysical High-resolution Imaging Technology,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China
第一作者单位	地球与空间科学系
通讯作者单位	地球与空间科学系; 南方科技大学
第一作者的第一单位	地球与空间科学系
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li，Yilong,Xin，Danhua,Zhang，Zhenguo. Estimating the economic loss caused by earthquake in Mainland China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2023,95.
APA	Li，Yilong,Xin，Danhua,&Zhang，Zhenguo.(2023).Estimating the economic loss caused by earthquake in Mainland China.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,95.
MLA	Li，Yilong,et al."Estimating the economic loss caused by earthquake in Mainland China".International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 95(2023).