气候变暖背景下苏门答腊岛水电潜能变化研究

气候变化是关乎人类命运的重大议题。气候变化将对区域和全球水循环产生深远影响，进而影响水电开发的可用性和稳定性。水电是一种传统清洁能源，在全球能源供应系统中发挥着重要作用。水电产量约占全球电力总产量的16.6%，约占所有非化石能源产电量的70%以上。水电不仅可以满足日益增长的全球电力需求，并可替代化石能源，助力于减少温室气体排放，进而有助于减缓全球升温进程。评估全球升温1.5℃和升温2℃的影响是当前能源领域和水资源领域的焦点之一。然而，当前对于全球升温1.5℃和2℃对水电开发潜能的不同影响仍鲜有报道。印度尼西亚是“一带一路”的重要战略支点国家，人口众多且能源消耗巨大，且该地区能源结构以传统化石能源为主。如果印度尼西亚继续严重依赖化石能源来满足其能源需求，则很难实现国家自主贡献和“净零”目标。

本文选择印度尼西亚独立拥有的最大岛屿——苏门答腊岛作为研究区，基于全球水文模型的径流模拟结果，构建基于技术经济分析的常规水电规划模型BeWhere模型和季节性抽水蓄能规划模型SPHS，在考虑经济可行性的基础上，识别了不同升温情景下适合修建常规水电和抽水蓄能电站的最佳位置，探究了全球升温1.5°C和2°C对印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛常规水电和抽水蓄能潜能的影响。通过分析不同升温情景下苏门答腊岛常规水电和抽水蓄能潜能对二氧化碳减排效益的影响，进一步评估不同升温情景下水电开发对实现国家自主贡献和“净零”目标的贡献和影响。本文的主要工作和研究成果如下：

（1）相对于基准期（1971~2010），全球升温1.5℃和2℃情景均会对热带岛屿苏门答腊岛的常规水电以及抽水蓄能潜能产生积极影响。在RCP6.0情景下，升温1.5℃情景水电产量高于升温2℃情景。升温1.5℃情景下常规水电产量占电力需求的百分比比全球升温2℃情景高出40%，而抽水蓄能开发潜能则比升温2℃情景高约5%。

（2）考虑自然保护区影响后，苏门答腊岛常规水电产量急剧下降并远小于当地能源需求，水电产量减少约40%~80%。因此，印度尼西亚政府的决策者在制定应对气候变化的策略时应权衡水电产量与生态环境之间的关系。

（3）苏门答腊岛基准期（1971~2010）及不同升温情景下抽水蓄能蓄水成本变化范围为0.10~1.00 $/ m3；抽水蓄能的非梯级开发储能成本变化范围为186~5000 $/MWh，梯级开发储能成本变化范围为91~2200 $/MWh。梯级开发储能成本约为非梯级开发储能成本的50%，但不同升温情景下苏门答腊岛季节性抽水蓄能的蓄水和储能成本相差不大。

（4）常规水电开发下二氧化碳减排量（最大值68.34Í106 t）有助于实现印度尼西亚国家自主贡献碳排放目标的15%，而抽水蓄能开发产生的二氧化碳减排量最大值为30.17Í106 t，占国家自主贡献碳排放目标的6.66%。因此，在常规水电开发的同时，联合抽水蓄能与光伏、风电等间歇式可再生能源进行开发，可使印度尼西亚实现国家自主贡献目标的20%以上。

本研究构建了一套系统、全面的水−能评价体系，将水文模型与基于技术经济分析的水电规划模型相结合，识别了不同升温情景下适宜水电站修建的最优位置，分析了不同升温情景对水电开发潜能时空分布的影响。研究结果有益于应对气候变化带来的能源安全问题，保障区域能源安全，促进能源绿色低碳转型，为建立绿色、低碳为导向的能源开发利用机制和实现“净零”排放提供理论支撑和实践依据。此外，本研究对于保障“一带一路”绿色发展和实现可持续发展目标具有一定的理论和现实意义。

Climate change is a major issue concerning the fate of humanity. Climate change will have profound impacts on regional and global hydrological cycle, which will, in turn, affect the availability and stability of hydropower generation. As a traditional and clean energy source, hydropower is indispensable to global energy supply system. Hydropower accounts for 16.6% of the world's electricity supply and 70% of all renewable electricity. Hydropower not only meets the increasing demand for electricity but also helps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels, contributing to global efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change. Determining the different effects of 1.5°C and 2°C global warming has become a hot topic in energy and water resources research. However, there are still limited studies on the effects of different global warming levels on hydropower potential. Indonesia has a pivotal role in the “Belt and Road” initiative, with a large population and huge energy consumption. Indonesia’s energy structure is currently dominated by fossil fuels. If Indonesia continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels to meet its energy demand, it will be difficult for the country to achieve its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and “net zero” targets.

This study chose Sumatra, the largest island independently owned by Indonesia, as the study area. Based on the techno-economic engineering model BeWhere and the reservoir optimization model SPHS considering the feasibility of economic, this study modeled and visualized optimal locations for conventional hydropower and pumped hydropower storage in Sumatra and analyzed the different carbon dioxide mitigation benefits of conventional hydropower and pumped hydropower storage under global warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C. The study also assessed the contribution of hydropower development to NDCs and net zero emissions. The major results are as follows:

(1) Both global warming scenarios of 1.5°C and 2°C will have a positive impact on the conventional hydropower and pumped hydropower storage of the tropical island of Sumatra compared with the baseline period (1971-2010). Under the RCP6.0 scenario, the hydropower output is higher under the 1.5°C warming scenario than that under the 2°C warming scenario. The ratio of conventional hydropower production to electricity demand under the 1.5°C global warming scenario is 40% higher than that under the 2°C global warming scenario, while the pumped hydropower storage under the 1.5°C global warming scenario is about 5% higher than that under the 2°C global warming scenario.

(2) When considering the impact of protected areas, the conventional hydropower production in Sumatra Island decreases sharply and is far below the local energy demand, with a reduction in hydropower output about 40% to 80%. Therefore, policymakers in the Indonesian government should balance the relationship between hydropower production and environment protection when making policy decisions.

(3) The range of pumped-storage water cost variation is 0.10-1.00 $/m³ in Sumatra Island during the baseline period (1971-2010) and under different warming scenarios. The energy storage cost for non-cascade development ranges from 186-5000 $/MWh, while the energy storage cost for cascade development ranges from 91-2200 $/MWh. The cascade development energy storage cost is about 50% of the non-cascade development energy storage cost, but the difference is not significant between pumped-storage water and energy storage for seasonal purposes in Sumatra Island under different warming scenarios.

(4) The reduction in carbon dioxide emissions under conventional hydropower (maximum 68.34Í10⁶ t) contributes to achieving 15% of Indonesia's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). In contrast, the maximum reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of pumped-storage hydropower is 30.17Í10⁶ t, which accounts for 6.66% of the NDCs. Therefore, development of conventional hydropower with intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power, along with pumped-storage hydropower, can enable Indonesia to achieve more than 20% of its NDCs target.

This study has constructed a systematic and comprehensive water-energy evaluation system that combines hydrological simulation results with technical and economic models. It has identified optimal locations for hydropower construction under different warming scenarios, analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution of hydropower development potential and carried out technical and economic evaluation of hydropower optimization under different warming scenarios. in addressing energy security issues caused by climate change, ensuring regional energy security, promoting energy green and low-carbon transformation, and providing theoretical and practical support for establishing a green and low-carbon-oriented energy development and utilization mechanism and achieving net-zero emissions. Furthermore, this study has certain theoretical and practical significance for ensuring the green development of the Belt and Road Initiative and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

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