Groundwater Vulnerability in a Megacity Under Climate and Economic Changes: A Coupled Sociohydrological Analysis

Li，Bin1,2; Zheng，Yi2; Di Baldassarre，Giuliano3,4; Xu，Peng2; Pande，Saket5; Sivapalan，Murugesu6,7

2023-12-01

10.1029/2022WR033943

Water Resources Research   影响因子和分区

0043-1397

1944-7973

Groundwater depletion has become increasingly challenging, and many cities worldwide have adopted drastic policies to relieve water stress due to socioeconomic growth. Located on the declining aquifer of the North China Plain, Beijing, for example, has developed plans to limit the size of the city’s population. However, the effect of population displacement under uncertain macroeconomic and climate change remains ambiguous. We adopt a sociohydrological model, with explicit consideration of the dynamics of human-water interactions, to explore the groundwater vulnerability of Beijing. We investigate how human response might shape the development trajectories of the groundwater-population-economy system under different macroscale economic and climate scenarios. Furthermore, we use a machine learning algorithm to identify the decisive factors to be considered for reducing groundwater vulnerability. Our results show that while rapid external economic development or larger annual average precipitation would enable recovery of the groundwater table in the short term, they may slacken human water shortage awareness and result in more acute groundwater depletion in the long run. Strengthening policymaker perceptions of groundwater depletion would prompt timely response policies for controlling population size. Improving the quantity and quality of labor force input to economic development would avoid downturns in the economy due to labor shortages. The outcomes of this study suggest that these strategies would effectively reduce groundwater vulnerability in the long run without causing severe socioeconomic recession. These findings highlight the importance of endogenizing human behavioral dynamics in sustainable urban water management.

climate change groundwater modeling sociohydrology water management water supply

SCI ; EI

英语

通讯

WOS:001114050500001

20235015190091

Aquifers ; Behavioral research ; Economic and social effects ; Economics ; Groundwater resources ; Learning algorithms ; Machine learning ; Population statistics ; Water management ; Water supply

Atmospheric Properties:443.1 ; Groundwater:444.2 ; Water Supply Systems:446.1 ; Ergonomics and Human Factors Engineering:461.4 ; Artificial Intelligence:723.4 ; Machine Learning:723.4.2 ; Social Sciences:971

ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY

2-s2.0-85178966395

Scopus

1.Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute,Guangzhou,China
2.Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
3.Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS),Uppsala University,Uppsala,Sweden
4.Department of Earth Sciences,Uppsala University,Uppsala,Sweden
5.Department of Water Management,Delft University of Technology,Delft,Netherlands
6.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,Urbana,United States
7.Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science,University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,Urbana,United States

Li，Bin,Zheng，Yi,Di Baldassarre，Giuliano,et al. Groundwater Vulnerability in a Megacity Under Climate and Economic Changes: A Coupled Sociohydrological Analysis[J]. Water Resources Research,2023,59(12).

Li，Bin,Zheng，Yi,Di Baldassarre，Giuliano,Xu，Peng,Pande，Saket,&Sivapalan，Murugesu.(2023).Groundwater Vulnerability in a Megacity Under Climate and Economic Changes: A Coupled Sociohydrological Analysis.Water Resources Research,59(12).

Li，Bin,et al."Groundwater Vulnerability in a Megacity Under Climate and Economic Changes: A Coupled Sociohydrological Analysis".Water Resources Research 59.12(2023).