Impacts of Ship Emissions on Air Quality in Southern China: Opportunistic Insights from the Abrupt Emission Changes in Early 2020

In early 2020, two unique events perturbed ship emissions of pollutants around Southern China, proffering insights into the impacts of ship emissions on regional air quality: the decline of ship activities due to COVID-19 and the global enforcement of low-sulfur (<0.5%) fuel oil for ships. In January and February 2020, estimated ship emissions of NOx, SO2, and primary PM2.5 over Southern China dropped by 19, 71, and 58%, respectively, relative to the same period in 2019. The decline of ship NOx emissions was mostly over the coastal waters and inland waterways of Southern China due to reduced ship activities. The decline of ship SO2 and primary PM2.5 emissions was most pronounced outside the Chinese Domestic Emission Control Area due to the switch to low-sulfur fuel oil there. Ship emission reductions in early 2020 drove 16 to 18% decreases in surface NO2 levels but 3.8 to 4.9% increases in surface ozone over Southern China. We estimated that ship emissions contributed 40% of surface NO2 concentrations over Guangdong in winter. Our results indicated that future abatements of ship emissions should be implemented synergistically with reductions of land-borne anthropogenic emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds to effectively alleviate regional ozone pollution.