Tuberculosis screening among children and adolescents in China: insights from a mathematical model

Estill, Janne1,2; Xun, Yangqin1,2; Wu, Shouyuan3; Hu, Lidong4; Yang, Nan1,2; Yang, Shu5; Chen, Yaolong1,6,7,8,10; Li, Guobao9,11

2023-08-01

10.1016/j.imed.2022.09.001

INTELLIGENT MEDICINE   影响因子和分区

2667-1026

Background Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be prevalent in China also among children and adolescents in China. We built a dynamic mathematical model for TB transmission in China, and applied it to compare the epidemic trends 2021-2030 under a range of screening interventions focusing on children and adolescents.Methods We developed a dynamic mathematical model with a flexible structure. The model can be applied either stochastically or deterministically, and can encompass arbitrary age structure and resistance levels. In the present version, we used the deterministic version excluding resistance but including age structure with six groups: 0-5, 6-11, 12-14, 15-17, 18-64, and 65 years and above. We parameterized the model by literature data and fltting it to case and death estimates provided by the World Health Organization. We compared the new TB cases and TB-related deaths in each age group over the period 2021-2030 in 10 scenarios that involved intensifled screening of particular age groups of children, adolescents, or young adults, or decreased or increased diagnostic accuracy of the screening.Results Screening the entire age class of 18-year-old persons would prevent 517,000 TB cases and 14,600 TB-related deaths between years 2021 and 2030, corresponding to 6.6% and 5.5% decrease from the standard of care projection, respectively. Annual screening of children aged 6-11 and, to a lesser extent, 0-5 years, also reduced TB incidence and mortality, particularly among children of the respective ages but also in other age groups. In contrast, intensifled screening of adolescents did not have a major impact. Screening with a simpler and less accurate method resulted in worsened outcomes, which could not be offset by more intensive screening. More accurate screening and better sensitivity to detect latent TB could prevent 2.3 million TB cases and 68,500 TB deaths in the coming 10 years.Conclusion Routine screening in schools can efficiently reduce the burden of TB in China. Screening should be intensifled particularly among children in primary school age.

Tuberculosis China Children and adolescents Mathematical model Screening

ESCI ; EI

英语

通讯

China Scholarship Council (CSC)[202106180043] ; China Scholarship Council[202206180007]

Computer Science ; Medical Informatics

Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Medical Informatics

WOS:001103709600001

ELSEVIER

20233514653190

Renewable energy resources

Structural Members and Shapes:408.2 ; Energy Resources and Renewable Energy Issues:525.1

Web of Science

1.Lanzhou Univ, Evidence Based Med Ctr, Sch Basic Med Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China
2.Univ Geneva, Inst Global Hlth, Geneva, Switzerland
3.Lanzhou Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Peoples Liberat Army Gen Hosp, Med Ctr 1, Dept Rheumatol & Immunol, Beijing 100853, Peoples R China
5.Chengdu Univ Tradit Chinese Med, Coll Med Informat Engn, Chengdu 610000, Sichuan, Peoples R China
6.Lanzhou Univ, Chinese Acad Med Sci 2021RU017, Sch Basic Med Sci, Res Unit Evidence Based Evaluat & Guidelines, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China
7.Lanzhou Univ, Inst Hlth Data Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China
8.WHO Collaborating Ctr Guideline Implementat & Know, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China
9.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Shenzhen Peoples Hosp 3, Affiliated Hosp 2, Dept Lung Dis, Shenzhen 518112, Guangdong, Peoples R China
10.Lanzhou Univ, Inst Hlth Data Sci, 199 Donggang West Rd, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
11.Third Peoples Hosp Shenzhen, 29 Bulan Rd, Shenzhen 518112, Peoples R China

Estill, Janne,Xun, Yangqin,Wu, Shouyuan,et al. Tuberculosis screening among children and adolescents in China: insights from a mathematical model[J]. INTELLIGENT MEDICINE,2023,3(3):157-163.

Estill, Janne.,Xun, Yangqin.,Wu, Shouyuan.,Hu, Lidong.,Yang, Nan.,...&Li, Guobao.(2023).Tuberculosis screening among children and adolescents in China: insights from a mathematical model.INTELLIGENT MEDICINE,3(3),157-163.

Estill, Janne,et al."Tuberculosis screening among children and adolescents in China: insights from a mathematical model".INTELLIGENT MEDICINE 3.3(2023):157-163.