Fertilizer management for global ammonia emission reduction

Xu，Peng1,2; Li，Geng3,4; Zheng，Yi1,5,6; Fung，Jimmy C.H.3,7; Chen，Anping8; Zeng，Zhenzhong1; Shen，Huizhong1; Hu，Min9; Mao，Jiafu10; Zheng，Yan1; Cui，Xiaoqing11; Guo，Zhilin1; Chen，Yilin1; Feng，Lian1; He，Shaokun1; Zhang，Xuguo7; Lau，Alexis K.H.3,12; Tao，Shu1,13; Houlton，Benjamin Z.14

2024

10.1038/s41586-024-07020-z

Nature   影响因子和分区

0028-0836

1476-4687

Crop production is a large source of atmospheric ammonia (NH), which poses risks to air quality, human health and ecosystems. However, estimating global NH emissions from croplands is subject to uncertainties because of data limitations, thereby limiting the accurate identification of mitigation options and efficacy. Here we develop a machine learning model for generating crop-specific and spatially explicit NH emission factors globally (5-arcmin resolution) based on a compiled dataset of field observations. We show that global NH emissions from rice, wheat and maize fields in 2018 were 4.3 ± 1.0 Tg N yr, lower than previous estimates that did not fully consider fertilizer management practices. Furthermore, spatially optimizing fertilizer management, as guided by the machine learning model, has the potential to reduce the NH emissions by about 38% (1.6 ± 0.4 Tg N yr) without altering total fertilizer nitrogen inputs. Specifically, we estimate potential NH emissions reductions of 47% (44–56%) for rice, 27% (24–28%) for maize and 26% (20–28%) for wheat cultivation, respectively. Under future climate change scenarios, we estimate that NH emissions could increase by 4.0 ± 2.7% under SSP1–2.6 and 5.5 ± 5.7% under SSP5–8.5 by 2030–2060. However, targeted fertilizer management has the potential to mitigate these increases.

SCI

英语

第一 ; 通讯

BIOLOGY & BIOCHEMISTRY ; CLINICAL MEDICINE ; MULTIDISCIPLINARY ; PLANT & ANIMAL SCIENCE ; ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY ; SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL ; MICROBIOLOGY ; ECONOMICS BUSINESS ; IMMUNOLOGY ; MATERIALS SCIENCE ; COMPUTER SCIENCE ; SPACE SCIENCE ; MOLECULAR BIOLOGY & GENETICS ; CHEMISTRY ; NEUROSCIENCE & BEHAVIOR ; PHYSICS ; GEOSCIENCES ; ENGINEERING

2-s2.0-85183849196

Scopus

1.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
2.Institute of Surface-Earth System Science,School of Earth System Science,Tianjin University,Tianjin,China
3.Division of Environment and Sustainability,The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,Hong Kong
4.Division of Emerging Interdisciplinary Areas,The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,Hong Kong
5.State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Pollution Control,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
6.Shenzhen Municipal Engineering Lab of Environmental IoT Technologies,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
7.Department of Mathematics,The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,Hong Kong
8.Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology,Colorado State University,Fort Collins,United States
9.State Joint Key Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control,College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing,China
10.Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute,Oak Ridge National Laboratory,Oak Ridge,United States
11.School of Grassland Science,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing,China
12.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,Hong Kong
13.Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing,China
14.Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Department of Global Development,Cornell University,Ithaca,United States

Xu，Peng,Li，Geng,Zheng，Yi,et al. Fertilizer management for global ammonia emission reduction[J]. Nature,2024.

Xu，Peng.,Li，Geng.,Zheng，Yi.,Fung，Jimmy C.H..,Chen，Anping.,...&Houlton，Benjamin Z..(2024).Fertilizer management for global ammonia emission reduction.Nature.

Xu，Peng,et al."Fertilizer management for global ammonia emission reduction".Nature (2024).