Tropical Cyclone Changes in Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections: A Study Over the Shanghai Region

Buonomo，Erasmo1; Savage，Nicholas1; Dong，Guangtao2; Becker，Bernd1; Jones，Richard G.1; Tian，Zhan3; Sun，Laixiang4,5

2024-03-16

10.1029/2023JD038508

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres   影响因子和分区

2169-897X

2169-8996

Changes in tropical cyclones due to greenhouse-gas forcing in the Shanghai area have been studied in a double-nesting regional model experiment using the Met Office convection-permitting model HadREM3-RA1T at 4 km resolution and the regional model HadREM3-GA7.05 at 12 km for the intermediate nest. Boundary conditions for the experiment have been constructed from HadGEM2-ES, a General Circulation Model (GCM) from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), directly using high-frequency data for the atmosphere (6-hourly) and the ocean (daily), for the historical period (1981–2000) and under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (2080–2099). These choices identify one of the warmest climate scenarios available from CMIP5. Given the direct use of GCM data for the baseline, large scale conditions relevant for tropical cyclones have been analyzed, demonstrating a realistic representation of environmental conditions off the coast of eastern China. GCM large scale changes show a reduction in wind shear in addition to the expected strong increase in sea-surface temperature. Tropical cyclones from the 4 km historical simulation have a negative bias in intensity, not exceeding Category 4, and a wet bias in the rainfall associated with these cyclones. However, there is a clear improvement in cyclone intensity and rainfall at 4 km in comparison with the 12 km simulation. Climate change responses in the 4 km simulation include an extension of the tropical cyclone season, and strong increases in frequency of the most intense cyclones (approximately by a factor of 10) and associated rainfall. These are consistent with the results from the 12 km simulation.

extreme events regional climate change regional modeling tropical cyclones

SCI

英语

其他

GEOSCIENCES

2-s2.0-85186439584

Scopus

1.Met Office Hadley Centre,Exeter,United Kingdom
2.Shanghai Climate Center,Shanghai Meteorological Service,Shanghai,China
3.Department of Environmental Science and Engineering,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
4.Department of Geographical Sciences,University of Maryland,College Park,United States
5.School of Finance and Management,SOAS University of London,London,United Kingdom

Buonomo，Erasmo,Savage，Nicholas,Dong，Guangtao,et al. Tropical Cyclone Changes in Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections: A Study Over the Shanghai Region[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2024,129(5).

Buonomo，Erasmo.,Savage，Nicholas.,Dong，Guangtao.,Becker，Bernd.,Jones，Richard G..,...&Sun，Laixiang.(2024).Tropical Cyclone Changes in Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections: A Study Over the Shanghai Region.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,129(5).

Buonomo，Erasmo,et al."Tropical Cyclone Changes in Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections: A Study Over the Shanghai Region".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 129.5(2024).