| 题名 | Potential yield of world maize under global warming based on ARIMA-TR model |
| 作者 | |
| 通讯作者 | Chengzhi，Cai |
| 发表日期 | 2024-03-01
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| DOI | |
| 发表期刊 | |
| ISSN | 0972-1665
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| EISSN | 2583-2980
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| 卷号 | 26期号:1页码:32-36 |
| 摘要 | With continuous increase of population and demand for nutritional food, analyzing potential yield of world maize affected by global warming is of great significance to direct the crop production in the future. Thus, in this paper both average and top (national) yields of world maize between 2021 and 2030 are projected creatively using ARIMA-TR (Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average and Trend Regression) model based on historic yields since 1961. The impact of global warming on the yields of world maize from 1961 to 2020 was analyzed using unary regression model. Our study concludes that between 2021 and 2030, average yield of world maize is projected to be from 5989 kg ha to 6703 kg ha while the top yield from 36530 kg ha to 44271 kg ha, or the average ranging from 16.39% decreasingly to 15.14% of the top; from 1961 to 2020 global warming exerts positive effect on average yield of world maize less than on the top, which partly drives the gap between these two yields widened gradually; for world maize by 2030, the opportunities for improving global production should be mainly dependent on the advantage of high-yield countries. |
| 关键词 | |
| 相关链接 | [Scopus记录] |
| 语种 | 英语
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| 学校署名 | 其他
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| Scopus记录号 | 2-s2.0-85186894187
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| 来源库 | Scopus
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| 引用统计 | |
| 成果类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://sustech.caswiz.com/handle/2SGJ60CL/729142 |
| 专题 | 南方科技大学 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Economic Institute,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang,550025,China 2.School of Foreign Languages,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang,550025,China 3.School of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 |
Chengzhi，Cai,Tingting，Deng,Wenfang，Cao. Potential yield of world maize under global warming based on ARIMA-TR model[J]. Journal of Agrometeorology,2024,26(1):32-36.
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| APA |
Chengzhi，Cai,Tingting，Deng,&Wenfang，Cao.(2024).Potential yield of world maize under global warming based on ARIMA-TR model.Journal of Agrometeorology,26(1),32-36.
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| MLA |
Chengzhi，Cai,et al."Potential yield of world maize under global warming based on ARIMA-TR model".Journal of Agrometeorology 26.1(2024):32-36.
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| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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