青藏高原典型流域冰川退缩及对地下水的影响模拟研究

冰川作为固体水库，对气候变化极其敏感，由气候变暖导致的冰川退缩对冰川发育的高寒流域的水文过程产生了重要的影响。青藏高原被称为第三极，是亚洲众多大江大河的源头，在青藏高原广泛分布着冰川。研究气候变化影响下青藏高原冰川退缩规律及其对水文循环的影响对预估和应对气候变化对水资源和生态环境的影响具有重要的意义。然而，目前有关青藏高原冰川退缩对水文过程的影响的研究，多集中在地表水水文过程，对地下水的影响尚不清楚。鉴于目前地下水对冰川退缩的响应机制尚不完善，亟需开展相关研究来探讨这些问题。

本文基于冰川厚度模拟、水文观测、冰川模型和地表水-地下水耦合模型等相关研究成果，利用度日因子方法、Δh-参数化方法、HydroGeoSphere（HGS）模型等研究方法，就青藏高原典型高寒流域冰川退缩规律及其对地下水的影响展开系统研究。以冰川主导的冬克玛底河流域和杰玛央宗流域为研究对象，探究了冰川退缩对冰下融水补给地下水的影响机制。对于冰川不占主导的拉萨河流域，探讨了冰川退缩对冰川表面融水补给地下水的影响机制。

以长江源区典型冰川主导的流域-冬克玛底河流域为研究对象，采用度日因子方法和HGS模型构建了冬克玛底河流域的三维水文模型，探究了冬克玛底冰川在未来不同升温趋势下的退缩规律和不同因子对冰下融水补给地下水影响机制。结果表明，在未来升温最为剧烈的1.5 ℃情景下，冬克玛底冰川面积和平均厚度到2070年将分别减少2.7%和26.2%。渗透系数的增加有助于冰下融水补给地下水，而降水和气温的增加不利于冰下融水补给地下水。渗透系数的增加引起非冰川区的地下水水头的迅速减小，降水的增加引起非冰川区地下水水头增加，而气温的增加将导致冰川区的地下水水头迅速减小。

以雅鲁藏布江源区典型冰川主导流域-杰玛央宗流域为研究对象，采用Δh-参数化方法和HGS模型，结合未来最新的CMIP6气候模型，构建了杰玛央宗流域三维水文模型来探究杰玛央宗冰川在不同气候变化情景下的退缩规律和地下水演变规律。结果表明，在SSP5-8.5情景下，冰川面积、体积和平均厚度到2100年将分别减少了的57%、85%和66%。稳定流阶段多年平均冰下融水补给地下水的速率为24 mm/a，占总地下水补给的63%。冰下融水补给地下水和总地下水补给在SSP5-8.5情景下，到2100年将分别减小74%和37%。在SSP5-8.5情景下，降水补给地下水将在2100年增加51%，但不能抵消冰下融水补给地下水的减少。未来杰玛央宗流域在冰川末端和含水层浅层区域地下水水头将显著的降低。

以雅鲁藏布江中游的拉萨河流域为研究对象，基于CMIP6气候模型数据，利用Δh-参数化方法和HGS模型，构建了拉萨河流域三维水文模型。模拟了未来冰川退缩趋势，探究了未来不同气候情景下冰川融水和地下水对径流贡献的变化及地下水补给来源的变化。结果表明，在SSP2-4.5情景下，拉萨河流域的拉萨、旁多和羊八井等子流域的冰川体积到2100年将分别损失39.4%、43.1%和33.5%。在SSP5-8.5情景下，冰川体积到2100年几乎完全消失。在历史时期（1980–2020），拉萨、旁多、唐加和羊八井四个子流域冰川融水径流对总径流的贡献分别为6.3%、9.2%、7.3%和34.1%。地下水排泄对于维持总径流的稳定性上起着重要的作用，尤其是在干旱年份。在极端干旱年份，在拉萨、旁多和唐加三个子流域，地下水贡献能达到8%–13%，而在羊八井子流域，地下水的贡献能够达到38%。历史时期，在拉萨和羊八井子流域中，冰川融水对地下水的补给占地下水总补给的5.6%和26.4%，但在未来时期（2021–2100），由于冰川快速退缩，冰川融水对地下水补给的贡献将迅速减少。由于地下水排泄量在未来不断地增加，在一定程度上可以弥补未来总径流中冰川融水径流和融雪径流的减少。同时，由于未来有更多的降水能够补给地下水，拉萨河流域浅层水头在两种气候情景下都呈现增加的趋势。

本研究系统地探究了气候变化影响下青藏高原典型流域冰川退缩情况及未来演变趋势，深入分析了冰川退缩对地下水的影响机制，揭示了未来冰川退缩将会导致的水文响应规律，提高了对冰川流域地下水对气候变化响应机制的认识，为高寒山区流域的水资源管理、规划、利用以及相关应对策略提供了理论支持和科学依据。

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