上市公司财报发布事件中股吧讨论的群体极化现象探究

互联网的普及大幅度降低了人们获取信息和发表意见的门槛，也使很多人参与到相关话题的讨论中来。但有大量研究表明网络讨论会带来群体极化现象，即群体讨论使群体成员所持观点变得更加极端。而在此基础上，很多学者指出，由于网络的匿名特性，观点的表达更加开放，很多人可以发表平时并不敢或不能发表的内容，因此极化程度会更高。有大量的实验室和实证研究印证了这一观点。

相比于社会事件中的群体极化现象，金融事件中由于股票相关数据的实时变动，在很大程度上会更持续、实时地影响人们的判断和选择，讨论的作用的存在性和强度的验证变得更加困难，相关研究也并不充足。对此本文选取了公司财报发布这一金融事件，利用相关讨论文本中的情感得分，建立了情感极端程度关于讨论度或讨论异常变动、财报发布事件和讨论事件的DID双重差分模型，并引入股票市场数据的异常变动率、财报公开的净利润数据和市值规模等控制变量，探究了对于金融事件的讨论是否会对引发群体极化现象。

研究发现，发现财报发布后平均讨论量有着显著的提升，说明金融事件会刺激相关话题的进一步讨论。其次，研究发现，从长期而言，相比于财报发布之前的整体情感极端情况，高讨论度有助于极化整体正文和标题的情感，即在金融领域中讨论同样会引发群体极化现象；最后，将平均讨论量数据替换为相较于之前的讨论异常变动数据，发现除少量结果不显著外，无论对比财报发布前、讨论中和讨论结束后哪两个时间段，这些异常变动的讨论都会对正文和标题的情感极化程度产生显著负向影响

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