Double intensification centers of summer marine heatwaves in the South China Sea associated with global warming

Dong, Tianyun1,2,3,4; Liu, Fei2,3; Dong, Wenjie2,3; Ran, Qi2,3; Zhu, Xian2,3; Hu, Shijian5; Yao, Yulong6; Shi, Hui7,8

2024-04-01

10.1007/s00382-024-07247-6

CLIMATE DYNAMICS   影响因子和分区

0930-7575

1432-0894

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the South China Sea (SCS) have prolonged impacts on local ecosystems and economies, and accurate projection of MHWs under future global warming is crucial for the high-quality development of local society. The future change in the spatial pattern of MHWs, however, is not clear despite the well-known overall intensification of MHWs. Here we find that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models can effectively capture the main distribution of observed SCS MHWs, showing a uniform distribution of frequency and a "north high-south low" distribution of mean intensity and cumulative intensity. However, it is worth noting that the simulated center of long MHW duration is shifted to the southern SCS compared to the central SCS in observations. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-2.6 (SSP126) scenario, the increase in MHW cumulative intensity exhibits a double-center structure in the northern coastal region and southern SCS. This is primarily attributed to the large increase in frequency and mean intensity in the north, and an increase in duration in the south. Both the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios project similar patterns of MHW intensification, but with larger magnitudes. The climatological distribution of the mixed layer depth (MLD), which is deeper in the south and shallower in the north, contributes to the spatial distribution of SCS MHW changes. The strong seasonal-mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the northern SCS, caused by enhanced solar radiation, also contributes to the intensification of MHW frequency and mean intensity in the northern region.

Marine heatwave South China Sea Double centers SSP126 Mixed layer depth Solar radiation

SCI

英语

其他

Natural Science Foundation of China["42175061","41975107","42088101","U21A6001","42175173"] ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[2019QZKK0103] ; null[2020B0301030004]

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WOS:001209543800001

SPRINGER

GEOSCIENCES

Web of Science

1.Eastern Inst Technol, Eastern Inst Adv Study, Ningbo 315200, Peoples R China
2.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Key Lab Trop Atmosphere Ocean Syst, Minist Educ, Zhuhai 519082, Peoples R China
3.Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Zhuhai, Zhuhai 519082, Peoples R China
4.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanog, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou 510301, Peoples R China
7.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Cooperat Inst Marine & Atmospher Res CIMAR, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
8.NOAA Pacific Isl Fisheries Sci Ctr, Ecosyst Sci Div, Honolulu, HI 96818 USA

Dong, Tianyun,Liu, Fei,Dong, Wenjie,et al. Double intensification centers of summer marine heatwaves in the South China Sea associated with global warming[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2024.

Dong, Tianyun.,Liu, Fei.,Dong, Wenjie.,Ran, Qi.,Zhu, Xian.,...&Shi, Hui.(2024).Double intensification centers of summer marine heatwaves in the South China Sea associated with global warming.CLIMATE DYNAMICS.

Dong, Tianyun,et al."Double intensification centers of summer marine heatwaves in the South China Sea associated with global warming".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2024).