Spatial-structural analysis of macroeconomic factors’ impact on carbon emissions in East Africa: a spatial econometric panel study

Despite the abundance of research on reducing carbon emissions, there is a significant gap in understanding the influence of macroeconomic factors on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from a spatial-structural perspective. This study aims to contribute to the literature by investigating the impact of macroeconomic factors on carbon dioxide emissions in six East African countries between 1989 and 2020. Using spatial econometric panel models, the study analyzed spatial dependence among the variables. The empirical findings indicate that gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and electricity consumption have positive direct and indirect effects on carbon emissions, while fuel prices and exports have negative direct effects, but positive spillover effects on neighboring countries. Imports have a positive impact on local economies, but negative spillover effects. Additionally, the urban population has no significant impact on the environment. These findings provide important policy implications for optimizing spatial growth patterns and achieving a low-carbon economy in East African countries.