Reconciled estimation of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance and contribution to global sea level change from 1996 to 2021

Li, Rongxing1,2; Li, Guojun1,2; Hai, Gang1,2; Xie, Huan1,2; Cheng, Yuan3; Chen, Wei4; Cui, Xiangbin5; Ding, Minghu6; Gao, Chunchun7; Hao, Tong1,2; Ke, Changqing8; Li, Chuanjin5; Li, Jin10; Liu, Yan11; Ran, Jiangjun12; Ren, Jiawen9; Shen, Qiang13; Shen, Yunzhong1,2; Shi, Hongling13; Wang, Songyun14; Wang, Zemin15; Zhan, Jingang13; Zhang, Baojun15; Zhong, Min16; Zhou, Chunxia15

2024-09-01

10.1007/s11430-023-1394-5

SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES   影响因子和分区

1674-7313

1869-1897

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has been losing ice mass and contributing to global sea level rise (GSLR). Given its mass that is enough to cause similar to 58 m of GSLR, accurate estimation of mass balance trend is critical for AIS mass loss monitoring and sea level rise forecasting. Here, we present an improved approach to reconciled solutions of mass balance in AIS and its regions from multiple contributing solutions using the input-out, altimetric, and gravimetric methods. In comparison to previous methods, such as IMBIE 2018, this approach utilizes an adaptive data aggregation window to handle the heterogeneity of the contributing solutions, including the number of solutions, temporal distributions, uncertainties, and estimation techniques. We improved the regression-based method by using a two-step procedure that establishes ensembled solutions within each method (input-output, altimetry, or gravimetry) and then estimates the method-independent reconciled solutions. For the first time, 16 contributing solutions from 8 Chinese institutions are used to estimate the reconciled mass balance of AIS and its regions from 1996 to 2021. Our results show that AIS has lost a total ice mass of similar to 3213 +/- 253 Gt during the period, an equivalent of similar to 8.9 +/- 0.7 mm of GSLR. There is a sustained mass loss acceleration since 2006, from 88.1 +/- 3.6 Gt yr-1 during 1996-2005 to 130.7 +/- 8.4 Gt yr-1 during 2006-2013 and further to 157.0 +/- 9.0 Gt yr-1 during 2014-2021. The mass loss signal in the West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula is dominant and clearly presented in the reconciled estimation and contributing solutions, regardless of estimation methods used and fluctuation of surface mass balance. Uncertainty and challenges remain in mass balance estimation in East Antarctica. This reconciled estimation approach can be extended and applied for improved mass balance estimation in the Greenland Ice Sheet and mountain glacier regions.

Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice mass loss acceleration Sea level rise Reconciled estimation

SCI

英语

其他

National Natural Science Foundation of China[42394131]

Geology

Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

WOS:001312105900001

SCIENCE PRESS

Web of Science

1.Tongji Univ, Ctr Spatial Informat Sci & Sustainable Dev Applica, Shanghai 200092, Peoples R China
2.Tongji Univ, Coll Surveying & Geoinformat, Shanghai 200092, Peoples R China
3.Shanghai Univ, Inst Conservat Cultural Heritage, Sch Cultural Heritage & Informat Management, Shanghai 200444, Peoples R China
4.Hubei Univ Arts & Sci, Coll Resource Environm & Tourism, Xiangyang 441053, Peoples R China
5.Polar Res Inst China, Shanghai 200136, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
7.Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Geodesy & Geomat, Qingdao 266590, Peoples R China
8.Nanjing Univ, Sch Geog & Ocean Sci, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China
9.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
10.Chinese Acad Sci, Shanghai Astron Observ, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China
11.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
12.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Earth & Space Sci, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
13.Chinese Acad Sci, Innovat Acad Precis Measurement Sci & Technol, State Key Lab Geodesy & Earths Dynam, Wuhan 430077, Peoples R China
14.Univ Texas Austin, Ctr Space Res, Austin, TX 78759 USA
15.Wuhan Univ, Chinese Antarctic Ctr Surveying & Mapping, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China
16.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Geospatial Engn & Sci, Zhuhai 519082, Peoples R China

Li, Rongxing,Li, Guojun,Hai, Gang,et al. Reconciled estimation of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance and contribution to global sea level change from 1996 to 2021[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2024.

Li, Rongxing.,Li, Guojun.,Hai, Gang.,Xie, Huan.,Cheng, Yuan.,...&Zhou, Chunxia.(2024).Reconciled estimation of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance and contribution to global sea level change from 1996 to 2021.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES.

Li, Rongxing,et al."Reconciled estimation of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance and contribution to global sea level change from 1996 to 2021".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES (2024).